India Eyes Trade Win: Can New Talks Dodge Trump’s Tariffs and Boost Export Gains?

Welcome Back Investor!

The Indian Rupee is drifting in a narrow band even as the US dollar loses steam trailing behind most Asian peers for now. Traders say it’s a mix of RBI intervention and cautious sentiment keeping the currency in check. For businesses eyeing imports or startups raising foreign capital, this range-bound rupee could quietly squeeze margins.

Let’s dive in!

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IMPACT NEWS

🤝 Deal or No Deal? India’s Last-Mile Trade Talks with the US Could Make or Break Export Momentum

India and the US are inching closer to what could be a game-changing trade pact one that could help Indian exporters dodge the looming shadow of Trump-era 26% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and other key products. For manufacturers, this isn’t just policy it’s pricing power. Those extra duties can squeeze already thin margins in sectors like textiles, gems, and auto components industries that live or die by global competitiveness.

So, what’s at stake? If negotiators can clinch a breakthrough, India’s ‘Make in India’ story gets rocket fuel: higher exports, fresh FDI inflows, and a stronger seat at the table as supply chains diversify away from over-reliance on China. It’s also a timely signal of India’s ability to hold its own in tough trade talks without giving up too much ground on tricky topics like digital trade rules or agri protections.

But here’s the reality check: With a US election cycle heating up, the clock is ticking. Both governments want to chalk up an economic win, but last-minute hitches could still derail the handshake.

For exporters and investors watching this unfold, the next few weeks could shape the runway for Indian goods in the world’s biggest consumer market or throw up new hurdles to navigate. Stay tuned.

MARKETS

The Indian stock market closed lower today as seen the Sensex dipped by 287.60 points to settle at 83,409.69, while the Nifty 50 lost 88.40 points to close at 25,453.40. Banking stocks took a bigger hit with the Nifty Bank slipping 460.25 points (-0.80%), indicating profit booking or cautious sentiment in financials. The Nifty Midcap 100 was relatively stable, shedding just 82.80 points. Overall, the market showed mild weakness across key indices, signaling investors are treading carefully amid market volatility.
_{Closing figures as on 02.07.25 (3.30pm IST)}

🔎 In Focus

Stock Performance:

Top Gainers

✅ Tata Steel: Gained +3.64% on strong global metal prices and optimism about robust demand recovery in China and Europe, driving positive sentiment in metal counters.
✅ JSW Steel: Rose +2.95% as the steel sector rallied alongside Tata Steel, with reports of higher export bookings and stable domestic demand.
✅ Asian Paints: Advanced +2.11% on expectations of healthy sales ahead of the festive season and stable crude oil prices, which help paint companies maintain margins.
✅ UltraTech Cement: Up +1.85% after major brokerages reiterated ‘BUY’ calls, citing solid infrastructure spending and positive guidance for Q1 results.

Top Losers

🔻 Shriram Finance: Fell -2.81% due to heavy profit booking as investors booked gains after its strong run in June.
🔻 HDFC Life: Declined -2.49% amid worries about tighter insurance premium norms and a slight miss in expected growth data released today.
🔻 IndusInd Bank: Dropped -2.44% following broader weakness in the banking sector, with worries over rising bond yields pressuring loan books.
🔻 Bajaj Finserv: Lost -2.23% due to cautious sentiment on NBFCs as investors rotated out of financials amid profit booking and sectoral churn.

INDIA FRONTIER

Everything else you need to know today

⚡ Shockwave: Reliance Communications just hit turbulent waters India’s SBI has declared its loan accounts as “fraud,” raising fresh doubts over the telecom giant’s survival arc. Once a poster child for India’s telecom boom, RCom now faces a credibility crisis.

💸 Relief: In a move that’s music to the ears of investors, India’s CBDT has raised the cost inflation index for FY25, effectively softening the capital gains tax blow. By pushing the index to 363, taxpayers may pocket slightly more when selling long-term assets.

🚀 Ascent: C has quietly muscled its way into India’s elite NBFC club, now crowned the 8th most valuable with a market cap crossing ₹70,200 crore. The surge underlines a broader investor appetite for shadow banking plays in an era of expanding credit demand.

💰 Windfall: ICICI Prudential AMC is gearing up for a blockbuster IPO worth up to ₹10,000 crore a pure OFS by its British JV partner. If cleared, this could become one of the largest AMC listings on Dalal Street, inviting a new wave of retail buzz.

SPECIAL

Inside LIC’s Billion-Dollar Bets: Where India’s Insurance Giant Is Parking Its Cash

India’s insurance giant LIC custodian of trillions in household wealth just pulled back the curtain on its top stock bets. Unsurprisingly, Reliance Industries leads the pack, underscoring LIC’s faith in Mukesh Ambani’s energy-to-telecom powerhouse. ITC follows close, boosted by its transformation beyond cigarettes into FMCG and hotels a pivot that’s paying dividends.

State Bank of India anchors the portfolio as India’s largest lender, while HDFC Bank and Infosys round out LIC’s big bets on banking resilience and tech leadership. Together, these holdings reveal LIC’s classic playbook: robust blue-chips that promise steady returns and weather market storms.

When India’s biggest institutional investor adjusts its portfolio, it subtly moves the market. Retail investors and fund managers watch LIC’s picks like a hawk, hoping to ride the same wave of trust and stability.

THE HANOOMAAN INSTITUTE

5 Books That Teach You How to Live Well for Less

In a world that often equates wealth with spending, these 5 books flip the script proving that financial freedom is more about intention than income.

📘 Buy What You Love Without Going Broke redefines budgeting as joy-focused spending. No shame, no restrictions just clarity on what truly matters.

📗 The Ultimate Guide to Frugal Living by Daisy Luther turns thrift into strength. Whether you’re facing job loss, inflation, or unexpected bills, Luther’s guide is equal parts mindset and method.

📕 The Complete Cheapskate cuts through the noise with practical, no-fluff advice that’s helped thousands build long-term security without selling their soul to spreadsheets.

📙 New to frugal living? Frugal Living For Dummies is your go-to playbook. It covers everything from daily savings hacks to big-picture financial planning, all in bite-sized, family-friendly chunks.

📒 And then there’s the classic: The Complete Tightwad Gazette by Amy Dacyczyn a cult favorite among frugalistas. She’ll show you how to stretch every rupee without sacrificing the good life.

🔍These aren’t just personal finance books they’re life design guides. Whether you’re saving for freedom or rethinking what “rich” really means, there’s wisdom here for every stage of your money journey.

💭 Because frugal isn’t cheap it’s powerful.

SUPERCHARGE YOUR INVESTING SKILLS

STOCK SCREENER TO UP YOUR GAME

Stocks undertaking huge capital expenditures to build/expand their capacity.
by Nakshatra

(Gross block + Capital work in progress ) >1.5*(Gross block preceding year + Capital work in progress preceding year ) AND
Promoter holding > 50% AND
Cash from investing last year < Cash from investing preceding year AND
Market Capitalization >=10000

Thanks for reading.

Until tomorrow!

Hanoomaan India Business team

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