India Faces 25% U.S. Tariff & Penalty Over Russia Ties - Jefferies Flags $4 B Risk

Welcome Back Investor!

India’s sprinting to ink a trade pact with the U.S. before a steep 25% tariff kicks in August 1 threatening everything from iPhone exports to pharma pipelines. Talks are stalling over agriculture, but a “lite” deal covering auto parts and generics may land just in time. For Indian startups eyeing global scale, this isn't just diplomacy it’s survival.

Let’s dive in!

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▪️ Impact News

▪️ Markets

▪️ Everything else you need to know today

▪️ Special

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IMPACT NEWS

🇮🇳💼 Trump’s 25% Tariff Threat: A $4 Billion Blow or a Strategic Reset for India?

The clock is ticking and the stakes are high.

Starting August 1, Indian exports could face a 25% tariff from the U.S., with an additional penalty for its trade ties with Russia. If implemented, this move could deliver a $4 billion blow, impacting sectors like pharma, electronics, and auto components.

For Indian exporters, this isn’t just about lost margins it’s about lost trust. Supply chain contracts, especially in the U.S., depend on cost stability and policy predictability.

But there’s a silver lining. Jefferies reports that both governments are working behind the scenes on a “mini-deal” focused on low-conflict sectors like semiconductors and EV components as a diplomatic lifeline.

India must act fast. With over $10B in iPhone exports alone at risk, even a short delay could disrupt momentum.

MARKETS

Indian markets ended on a cautious note with all major indices closing in the red. The Sensex dropped 296 points, closing at 81,185.58, while the Nifty 50 slipped 86.70 points to settle at 24,768.35 both down around 0.35%. Banking and midcap stocks weren’t spared either, with the Nifty Bank down 188.75 points, and the Nifty Midcap 100 taking a sharper 0.93% hit, losing 541.70 points.
_{Closing figures as on 31.07.25 (3.30pm IST)}

🔎 In Focus

Stock Performance:

Top Gainers

✅ HUL Surged +4% after posting strong Q1 results with ~8% profit growth. Rural demand and volume-led expansion boosted investor confidence.

✅ Jio Financial Rallied 3% after board approved ₹15,825 crore fundraise via convertible warrants. Market cheered promoter commitment and Q1 revenue jump.

✅ Eternal Ltd. Climbed +1.43% on Blinkit’s solid revenue growth and buzz around its margin expansion. Broker upgrades kept momentum strong.

✅ ITC Eased slightly ahead +1.07% of earnings due tomorrow. Traders remained cautious amid weak FMCG sentiment.

Top Losers

🔻 Adani Enterprises Tumbled -4% after Q1 profit fell 45% YoY. Coal trading slowdown and early monsoon hurt earnings.

🔻 Tata Steel Dropped -2.12% despite Q1 profit doubling. Revenue decline and global metal worries capped upside.

🔻 Dr. Reddy’s & 🔻 Sun Pharma Both fell 2–3% on U.S. tariff shock. Pharma exports face headwinds from new 25% import duty starting August-1.

Q4 RESULTS

^{Click on company name for result pdf} 

INDIA FRONTIER

Everything else you need to know today

🗣️ Undercut: In a blunt soundbite, Trump claimed the U.S. has “almost no” trade with India downplaying the nearly $200B annual exchange and sparking anxiety among cross-border founders.

🔍 Unveiled: Income Tax officials raided Nuvama Wealth over alleged offshore fund irregularities, just months after its rebrand from Edelweiss Broking.

🔌 Reboot: In a welcome breather, U.S. officials have paused steep import tariffs on Indian electronics for two weeks as a Section 232 review unfolds.

 📉 Ripple: Barclays warns that escalating U.S. tariffs could shave 30 basis points off India’s GDP growth, with tech and auto exports bearing the brunt.

SPECIAL

🔁 Global supply chains are shifting - Is India catching the next wave or missing It?

The next economic superpower won’t just build factories. It will build trust.

As U.S.-China tensions deepen, and Trump re-emerges with sharp tariff threats, the global economy is quietly redrawing its supply chain maps. Countries like Vietnam and the Philippines are already pivoting faster offering tax breaks, infrastructure deals, and strong pro-West alignments.

Europe is echoing the same tune: Ursula von der Leyen calls it “de-risking.” Translation? Diversify away from China before the next shockwave.

And where is India in all this?

Despite our population scale, digital infrastructure, and skilled labor pool, India still clings to high tariffs, slow trade negotiations, and a non-aligned foreign policy that leaves partners second-guessing.

🔍 Meanwhile:

• Vietnam is rapidly expanding electronics exports

• Philippines is emerging in semiconductor assembly

• ASEAN nations are negotiating faster, friendlier trade pacts

With Trump floating 25% tariffs on Indian exports and flagging military alignment issues, this is more than a policy moment it’s a strategic inflection point.

The next 6 months will determine whether India becomes the trusted alternative to China or a cautious observer of Asia’s transformation.

THE HANOOMAAN INSTITUTE

💰 Success in Silence: 5 Underrated Skills Wealthy People Quietly Master

The most financially successful people often don’t shout their secrets - they master small, invisible skills that compound over time.

Here are 5 of them worth paying attention to:

1. Impulse Control: They say no more than they say yes. To distractions. To debt. To things that feel good now but cost more later.

2. Deep Focus: While others chase noise, they build discipline around deep work. That’s where compound returns - both mental and financial - really begin.

3. Selective Frugality: They aren’t cheap. They’re intentional. They spend lavishly on growth, convenience, and time. And ruthlessly cut what doesn’t serve them.

4. Delayed Gratification: They’re playing the long game. Whether it’s investing, business, or career growth - they choose the boring path with asymmetric upside.

5. Emotional Detachment from Money: Money isn’t ego fuel. It’s a tool. The wealthy manage money like a strategist, not a gambler.

What’s striking? None of these require a fancy degree or a unicorn startup.

They’re learnable. Trainable. Repeatable.

SUPERCHARGE YOUR INVESTING SKILLS

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Thanks for reading.

Until tomorrow!

Hanoomaan India Business team

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