US-India Trade Reset: Trump and Modi Aim for Deal, Indian Stocks Rall

Welcome Back Investor!

Fitch has lifted India’s FY26 GDP forecast to 6.9% (from 6.5%) after a strong 7.8% Q1 surge, powered by services, GST-driven consumption, and resilient domestic demand. While this signals India’s growth engine is firing on all cylinders, rising U.S. tariffs and weaker investment could act as speed bumps. Growth is projected to moderate to 6.3% in FY27 and 6.2% in FY28, hinting that today’s sprint may not sustain its current pace.

Let’s dive in!

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▪️ Markets

▪️ Everything else you need to know today

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IMPACT NEWS

Trump Plans Talks with Modi as US, India Eye Trade Breakthrough

After weeks of tariff turbulence, Washington and New Delhi are signaling a reset. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that talks with India are underway to dismantle trade barriers, adding that he plans to speak directly with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the coming weeks. His tone struck a rare note of optimism, expressing confidence that a deal could be reached “very soon.”

For India, Modi reinforced the message of partnership, calling the U.S. a “close friend and natural partner” and stressing that negotiators are working with urgency to close the gaps. This diplomatic thaw comes at a crucial moment, with recent tariff threats clouding investor sentiment and sparking fears of disrupted supply chains.

Markets responded swiftly Indian equities gained more than 0.5%, a clear sign that investors welcomed the prospect of reduced trade friction. Analysts suggest that if successful, this reset could pave the way for expanded access for Indian exports, smoother investment flows, and stronger cooperation in strategic sectors like defense and technology.

MARKETS

Stocks soared with confidence riding high on India–U.S. trade talk optimism (President Trump and PM Modi signaling progress), expectations of a U.S. Fed rate cut, and PSU banks plus IT sector leadership - the Nifty closed near the psychological 25,000 level, while mid-caps outpaced with broad participation across 15 of 16 sectors.
_{Closing figures as on 10.09.25 (3.30pm IST)}

🔎 In Focus

Stock Performance:

Top Gainers

✅ Oracle Fin Serv (+10.1%) - Jumped after parent Oracle Corp reported a 359% YoY surge in cloud backlog ($455 bn) with expectations to cross $500 bn, fueling AI and cloud optimism that boosted its Indian arm.

✅ Persistent Systems (+5.6%) - Gained on strong buying in IT names as investors bet on U.S. rate-cut hopes and AI-driven growth opportunities.

✅ Tata Elxsi (+5.2%) - Rose on continued demand for design-led engineering and digital solutions, with traders rotating into midcap IT after large-cap IT’s strong run.

✅ Bharat Dynamics (+5.1%) - Moved up on defence sector momentum, robust order book visibility, and government’s focus on indigenisation of defence production.

Top Losers

🔻 BSE Limited (-3.7%) - Slipped as concerns linger over SEBI’s proposed F&O contract changes, which could dent trading volumes and hurt exchange revenue.

🔻 Avenue Supermarts (-2.7%) - Dropped due to margin pressure worries from rising input costs and profit booking after recent gains.

🔻 M&M (-2.5%) - Weakness came from sluggish rural demand and muted tractor sales outlook weighing on sentiment in the auto pack.

🔻 Supreme Industries (-2.2%) - Corrected after a recent rally, with analysts flagging valuation concerns and softer demand trends in the pipes and plastic segment.

INDIA FRONTIER

Everything else you need to know today

🌍 Rare: India is exploring a rare-earth mineral deal with Myanmar’s Kachin Independence Army to break its reliance on China’s tight grip over these critical resources. It's a bold move - testing geopolitical boundaries as tech ambitions for EVs and electronics push the nation to scout rugged terrain and new partnerships.

🚀 Rush: Urban Company’s ₹1,900-crore ($216 million) IPO sold out within hours, thanks to a tsunami of retail investor demand. With a fair valuation and recent profitability on its side, the at-home services giant has captured the market’s imagination - and set a high bar for the rest of India’s IPO landscape.

💻 Surge: Indian IT stocks are rallying hard - up to 8 % - buoyed by optimism around U.S.-India trade talks, favorable Fed interest-rate expectations, Oracle’s bullish cloud forecast, Infosys’s buyback buzz, and a weaker rupee enhancing export appeal. The IT sector may be firing on all cylinders again.

📉 Dip: Tata Capital’s unlisted shares have tumbled around 30 % from their April high, denting expectations ahead of its ₹17,200-crore IPO. Volatility in the unlisted market, valuation doubts, overhang from HDB Financial Services, and dilution fears from a recent rights issue are weighing on sentiment.

SPECIAL

How 100% Duties on China & India Could Reshape Trade

Global trade is bracing for fresh turbulence as Donald Trump pushes the European Union to impose 100% tariffs on China and India, framing it as a strategy to choke off Russia’s oil revenues. Trump’s plan hinges on the idea that higher duties on these Asian giants would indirectly starve Moscow’s war chest, given their role as major buyers of discounted Russian crude. The U.S., he emphasized, would match the EU’s move, signaling a potential transatlantic tariff wall.

But this isn’t just an economic chess move - it’s also a legal showdown. The U.S. Supreme Court is fast-tracking a case to decide whether Trump exceeded his authority by using emergency powers to levy such sweeping tariffs. The decision, expected this November, could set a precedent that reshapes presidential trade powers for decades to come.

For India, the stakes are high: a sudden tariff surge could rattle exports, dent investor sentiment, and complicate its growth story just as agencies like Fitch have raised optimism.

THE HANOOMAAN INSTITUTE

📈 Why Berkshire Hathaway Still Shines as a Value Stock

Warren Buffett has always said, “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.” And today, his Berkshire Hathaway is proving exactly why it continues to attract long-term investors - even in a market chasing flashy tech names.

Here are five reasons it stands tall as a value play right now:

1️⃣ Diversified Strength: From insurance to energy to railroads, Berkshire’s portfolio is a fortress. It isn’t just betting on one sector - it’s built for resilience.

2️⃣ Massive Cash Pile: With over $150 billion in reserves, Berkshire can swoop in on distressed deals when markets stumble - a classic Buffett edge.

3️⃣ Steady Earnings Power: Despite volatility, core businesses generate predictable cash flow, offering stability when many companies are wobbling.

4️⃣ Shareholder-Friendly Moves: Strategic buybacks and disciplined capital allocation keep boosting per-share value without risky overextensions.

5️⃣ Attractive Valuations: While hype-driven stocks soar and fall, Berkshire trades at a reasonable multiple - giving investors a margin of safety.

For anyone seeking value in 2025, Berkshire is more than Buffett’s legacy - it’s a masterclass in patience, prudence, and compounding.

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Until tomorrow!

Hanoomaan India Business team

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